A BLUE WAVE?: Sam Wang and Sean Wilentz, Princeton University professors and expert political commentators, told a gathering of Princeton Democrats how high the stakes are and why Central New Jersey is “ground zero of ground zero for the nation” in the upcoming election.About 70 attended the forum Sunday night at the Suzanne Patterson Center in the old municipal complex. (Photo courtesy of PCDO)

By Donald Gilpin

“Catch the Blue Wave,” “#Flip NJ Blue,” “Princeton Democrats United for Change,”  “Bonnie Watson Coleman,” “Bob Menendez,” “Dwaine Williamson and Eve Niedergang” — political posters and lawn signs filled the meeting room at Suzanne Patterson Center last Sunday night at the Princeton Community Democratic Organization (PCDO) monthly gathering.

With November 6 election day fast approaching, Princeton professors and expert political commentators Sam Wang and Sean Wilentz told a group of about 70 how high the stakes are, why Central New Jersey is a key battleground for the nation’s future, and what the PCDO can do about it.

Noting the possibility of flipping five congressional seats from Republican to Democratic in New Jersey this election, Wilentz, a social and political historian who has written widely on U.S. history, Bob Dylan, and slavery among other subjects, described New Jersey as “ground zero for this election — a very important place.”  He added, “It really is up to us, and Central New Jersey, which is ground zero of ground zero for the national election.  We are making history in this election.”

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are at stake in this election, which may affect partisan control of the House.  Republicans are currently in the majority with 235 seats to 193 for the Democrats.  Democrats would need to win 23 GOP-held seats to win control of the House.

Wang, a professor of molecular biology and neuroscience, a “data guy” and prominent expert in developing statistical methods to analyze elections, took a closer look at the particulars of flipping the House and “how you can put your efforts to the most efficient use.”

Describing the current political situation as “the most extended period of closely divided government  since the Gilded Age,” Wang stated, “The Democrats are favored, but not certain, to take the House in this election, and the goal in the Senate is to have as many seats as possible looking forward to 2020.”  He pointed out that Democrats have only a slim chance to make gains in the Senate this year, but have significant opportunities in the 2020 election.

Projecting a map highlighting close congressional races throughout the country, Wang quickly zeroed in on six races that are all still up for grabs, all within 50 miles of Princeton.  “If all these go Democratic, that would be one-fourth of the way towards retaking the House,” he said.

In particular, he emphasized New Jersey’s 3rd and 7th Districts and Pennsylvania’s 1st, which are all “on a knife’s edge,” with candidates divided by only one or

two percentage points in the polls.

“That means your efforts to get out the vote, to go door to door, to send postcards could make the difference,” he continued.  “The Democrats could take all of these districts, or the Democrats could lose all of them.  What’s certain is that your efforts are worth a lot in those districts.”

He added, “Bonnie Watson Coleman is pretty safe.  If you want to leverage your efforts, New Jersey 3 and 7 and Pennsylvania 1 are three races that are key.  If everyone in this room got out and knocked on doors, that would be enough to flip one of these races.” 

Andrew Kim (D) is running against Tom MacArthur (R) in the NJ 3rd District, which includes Burlington County and parts of Ocean County; while Tom Malinowski (D) is running against Leonard Lance (R) in District 7, which includes Hunterdon County and parts of Essex, Morris, Somerset, Union, and Warren.

After their opening remarks the discussion between Wang and Wilentz ranged widely, and was followed by an assortment of questions from the audience. 

Issues included gerrymandering, voter suppression, disenfranchising of voters, and voting rights.  Both Wang and Wilentz expressed hope that election results could overturn partisan control in a number of states and help to counteract undemocratic election practices. 

Taking the broad historical perspective, Wilentz claimed that the country is still reacting to Reconstruction, to the Civil Rights struggles of the 1960s and President Nixon’s Southern strategy in 1968. 

Both Wang and Wilentz expressed some hope of a blue wave, but declined to make any predictions. 

Citing women, as activists and as candidates winning offices, as “the big force this year” and “the big story,” Wang reminded his audience, “Democrats are one or two seats short of a majority and it’s within one or two percentage points.  The only way to overturn that prediction is to canvass door-to-door in the 3rd and 7th Districts.”

Wilentz added, “It’s a very tough fight.  I don’t want to encourage complacency.  It would be irresponsible to say how it’s going to go.  Things are so close in so many places, and two weeks — that’s forever.”